October 2026 News Roundup
October brought several predictions about the holiday season, as retailers measure their performance over the November-December period.
Holiday Expectations
US holiday retail sales are forecast to exceed $1 trillion for the first time, rising 4.2% year on year in November and December, compared with 3.1% growth last year, according to the National Retail Federation. NRF CEO Matthew Shay said consumers will prioritize holiday spending while watching their budgets, with inflation, gas prices and household pressures affecting income groups differently.
US online holiday sales are expected to reach a record $275.1 billion in November and December, rising 6.7% year on year, Adobe predicted. The group expects Cyber Week spending to increase 7.4% to $47.5 billion. AI-driven traffic to retail sites is projected to jump 130% as consumers use the tools to find deals and research products.
Sturdy September Sales
Retail has maintained positive momentum amid improving consumer sentiment. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index rose 7.5 points in October as gas prices eased and perceptions of business conditions strengthened. However, consumers planned to spend less on services and durable goods over the next six months, reflecting persistent inflation.
US retail sales rose 6.3% year on year in September, according to the Census Bureau. The increase marked the 12th consecutive month of growth, with solid back-to-school shopping supporting spending, the National Retail Federation (NRF) said. Retailers continued to emphasize affordability, using promotions and value pricing to keep everyday products within reach, according to the NRF.
US jewelry sales rose 7% year on year in September, as a 10% increase in the average retail sale outweighed a 3% decline in units sold, according to The Edge Retail Academy. The drop in unit sales was more moderate than in previous months. Diamond sales increased 5%, supported by a 9% rise in the average retail transaction despite a 4% decline in units sold.
Elsewhere, Hong Kong’s sales of jewelry, watches, clocks and valuable gifts rose 12% year on year to HKD 5.14 billion ($655.3 million) in August, according to the city’s Census and Statistics Department. Total retail sales increased 6% to HKD 30.06 billion ($4.09 billion), with growth expected to continue as visitor arrivals rise and local consumer sentiment improves.
Jewelry Sales Rise
Major global jewelers also reported strength in the jewelry segment.
LVMH reported sales at its watches and jewelry division grew 6% year on year to EUR 2.5 billion ($2.8 billion) in the third quarter, with management citing a “very good performance” in jewelry, led by Tiffany & Co. and Bulgari. The division outperformed LVMH’s other product categories and accounted for 14% of group revenue, while total sales rose 2% to EUR 18.28 billion ($20.48 billion).
Kering’s jewelry sales rose 12% year on year to EUR 239 million ($267.8 million) in the third quarter, making it the group’s strongest performing category. Group revenue was flat at EUR 3.35 billion ($3.75 billion). Boucheron maintained strong momentum, and Pomellato continued to gain traction, while results at DoDo and Qeelin were mixed, Kering said.
Chow Tai Fook reported sales at self-operated stores edged down 0.5% year on year in the quarter ended September 30. Revenue fell 5.3% in mainland China but rose 33% in Hong Kong and Macau, while same-store sales increased in both regions. The group expects net profit for the six months ended September 30, 2026, to rise 90% to 100%, supported by a fair-value gain on gold loan contracts and improved sales in key markets.
Luk Fook said retail revenue rose 12% year on year in the quarter ended September 30, led by 13% growth in Hong Kong and Macau. Sales increased 3% in mainland China and 14% in other markets. Same-store sales grew 12%, with gold up 22% and gem-set jewelry rising 10%.
Chow Sang Sang reported that sales rose 3% year on year in the third quarter, with same-store sales up 4% in mainland China and 7% in Hong Kong and Macau. Consumers in mainland China were cautious, but demand for gold jewelry held firm, the company said.
India-based Titan Company reported its domestic jewelry business grew approximately 21% year on year in the second quarter ending September 30, supported by strong growth in studded jewelry and a 20% increase in plain gold jewelry. Including its international business, Titan’s retail revenue grew 25%.
Michael Hill reported same-store sales rose 6.6% on a constant-currency basis in the 16 weeks to October 18. Sales increased 11% in Canada, 4% in Australia and 7% in New Zealand, despite a much tougher trading environment than a year earlier, management said.
Retail Consolidation Continues
Consolidation in the retail sector continued in October, with some key deals struck among independent jewelers.
Solomon Brothers Jewelers acquired Mervis Diamond Importers, adding the Washington-area retailer’s three showrooms to its business while preserving the Mervis name, staff and existing management team. Founders Ronnie and Zed Mervis will remain involved, while Solomon Brothers plans to support the business with expanded inventory, e-commerce, marketing and operational resources.
Lugano Jewelry has been acquired by Middle West Partners and a group of longtime clients, following the completion of its reorganization on September 30. Josh Gaynor, who served as interim CEO, has been appointed chief executive and will join the board, while the company’s four boutiques and Newport Beach workshop remain open.
The number of jewelry businesses operating in the US fell 1.4% year on year to 21,831 in the third quarter, a slower decline than previously, according to the Jewelers Board of Trade (JBT). During the period, 67 businesses opened, 88 ceased operations and 28 consolidated.
Brand Deals
UK-based luxury jeweler Boodles has acquired the Argyle Pink Diamonds brand from Rio Tinto. The deal includes the remaining pink-diamond inventory, trademarks and digital assets, and transfers stewardship of the brand. The acquisition follows the 2020 closure of the Argyle mine, which produced more than 90% of the world’s pink diamonds.
Blue Nile will become Royal Asscher’s exclusive licensed retailer in North America under a new partnership between the two companies. The collaboration introduces a curated natural diamond assortment selected by the Asscher family and the 14-piece SIX by Royal Asscher jewelry collection, while Blue Nile will offer the brand’s six patented diamond cuts through its US website and showrooms.
Pandora opened a $150 million jewelry manufacturing facility in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, its first production site outside Thailand. The plant, described as the world’s largest fine-jewelry crafting facility, will produce up to 60 million pieces annually, increasing Pandora’s manufacturing capacity by 50% and creating 7,000 jobs when fully operational.
Engagement Styles & Preferences
Solitaire settings accounted for 37% of engagement rings in Jewelers Mutual’s 2026 Engagement Ring Study, up from 22% in 2024, making them the most popular style. White gold remained the most common metal, although preference for platinum had grown considerably.
Jewels of Geneva
Christie’s will offer a 24-carat fancy intense pink diamond ring by Bulgari at its Magnificent Jewels auction in Geneva on November 10, with an estimate of CHF10 million to CHF15 million ($12 million to $18 million). From a European noble family’s collection, the diamond has remained in private hands for more than 70 years and has never been sold at auction.
Sotheby’s will offer an 8.63-carat, oval-shape, fancy intense pink, VS2-clarity diamond at its Geneva High Jewels sale on November 11. Estimated at CHF 3.3 million to CHF 5.5 million ($4 million to $6.7 million), the piece will lead the sale alongside a 2.88-carat, pear-shape, fancy deep blue, VS2-clarity diamond by Graff.
Sotheby’s will offer the 197.80-carat Romanov Sapphire, an unheated Ceylon stone once mounted by Fabergé and worn by Dowager Empress Maria Feodorovna, at its Geneva Royal & Noble Jewels sale on November 11. Estimated at CHF 850,000 to CHF 1.7 million ($1.1 million to $2.2 million), it will lead a sale that also includes a Cartier black-opal tiara once owned by the Duchess of Devonshire, a Mellerio diamond tiara from the House of Orléans and jewels from the collections of Queen Amélie of Portugal and Princess Sibylla of Sweden.
Trade & Polished Price Trends
Polished diamond prices continued their recovery in September, led by stronger gains in smaller, higher-quality stones, Rapaport reported. Its RAPI index for 0.30-carat diamonds rose 3.2% during the month, while the 0.50-carat index increased 2.5%, the 1-carat index edged up 0.3%, and the 3-carat index gained 1.5%.
India’s polished exports fell 5% year on year to $1.29 billion in September, while rough imports rose 13% to $1.05 billion, according to the Gem and Jewellery Export Promotion Council (GJEPC). In the third quarter, polished exports declined 9% to $3.09 billion and rough imports were flat at $2.84 billion, as average prices fell by double digits in both categories.
Antwerp’s polished diamond trade continued to improve in September, according to the Antwerp World Diamond Centre (AWDC). Polished exports rose 19% year on year to $948.8 million, driven by a 136% increase in shipments to the US and strong growth in exports to the UAE, Israel and India. Polished imports grew 6% to $880 million, while rough imports fell 15% and rough exports declined 23%.
Israel’s polished diamond exports fell 20% year on year to $928.9 million in the first nine months of 2026, according to the Ministry of Economy and Industry. Rough diamond imports declined 38% to $312.3 million.
The Israel Diamond Exchange and the Israel Tax Authority agreed to eliminate the minimum deemed income requirement for participating diamond dealers, setting taxable income in advance each year as a fixed percentage of turnover. The arrangement will run from 2027 to 2028 and is intended to strengthen Israel’s position as a diamond trading center alongside Belgium and Dubai.
Swiss watch exports rose 12% year on year to CHF 2.23 billion ($2.7 billion) in September, according to the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry. Shipments to the US surged 86% and those to France rose 128%, while exports of precious-metal watches increased 1% to CHF 780.1 million ($945.6 million).
Grading Labs Expand
International Gemmological Institute reported revenue rose 31% year on year to INR 3.98 billion ($41.8 million). Revenue from grading lab-grown diamonds increased 37%, while lab-grown diamond jewelry grew 47%; natural diamond loose-stone revenue rose 8%, natural diamond jewelry gained 3%, and colored gemstones increased sevenfold. Profit jumped 43% to INR 1.86 billion ($19.5 million).
GIA has opened a new campus in Canary Wharf, expanding its capacity in London. The campus will offer the Jewelry Design & Technology program in London for the first time, alongside gemology and jewelry arts courses.
Gübelin Gem Lab has opened a take-in window at the DMCC Luxury Innovation Centre in Dubai, allowing clients to submit gemstones, pearls and diamonds for analysis without traveling to Switzerland. Stones will be transported securely to the lab in Lucerne and returned with reports; visits are by appointment.
HRD Antwerp has opened a larger office and laboratory in Dubai’s Almas Tower, increasing its grading capacity in the Middle East by 20%. The company expects to add about 10 employees to its Dubai team, which serves around 500 clients across the GCC.
The Platinum Guild International (PGI) is closing its offices in the US, Japan, South Korea and Central Europe as part of a global restructuring, National Jeweler reported. The group is shifting resources to markets where they can generate the most sustainable platinum jewelry demand and industry value, PGI USA President Jenny Luker said.
Qatar Builds Industry Ties
The Qatar Diamond Exchange joined CIBJO as a National Association Member, expanding its engagement from the diamond trade into the wider jewelry and gemstone sector. The move follows QDE’s admission to the WFDB and World Diamond Council, aligning the recently launched Doha exchange with key international standards and industry bodies.
The Qatar Diamond Exchange signed partnership agreements with the London Diamond Bourse and the Diamond Federation of Hong Kong, China, strengthening its links with two major trading centers. The exchange also hosted Lesotho Prime Minister Samuel Matekane and Foreign Minister Limpho Justice Tau as it seeks to deepen ties with African diamond-producing countries.
Rough Market Performance
De Beers’ rough diamond sales rose 4% year on year to $731 million in the third quarter, as a 91% increase in sales volume to 8.7 million carats more than offset a 45% drop in the average price to $84 per carat. Production fell 11% to 6.8 million carats. The company said trading stabilized amid a more balanced supply-demand landscape and stronger consumer demand in the US and India, while synthetics continued to weigh on demand for lower-value natural diamonds.
Trans Atlantic Gem Sales (TAGS) and Sodiam generated $27.1 million in revenue at their rough tender in Luanda, Angola, implying an average price of about $15,700 per carat based on the 1,721 carats sold. The sale moved 94% of its 53 lots, sourced from 12 mines, and included a large number of exceptional special and fancy-colored stones, though the release does not say the goods were exclusively specials.
Gemfields generated $52 million at its October auction of mixed-quality rough rubies from Mozambique, selling 90 of the 99 lots offered. The average price reached $564.54 per carat, the highest across its five most recent mixed-quality auctions, with larger, fine-quality stones fetching particularly strong prices.
Structure in Synthetics
The Diamond Producers Council (DPC) has launched to challenge what it calls misleading claims about diamond identity, scarcity, value and production, and to represent lab-grown diamond producers. Its Myths & Truth website presents responses to industry claims. The council says its members produce more than 20 million carats of jewelry-grade diamonds annually and have allocated over $10 million to legal spending over the next year.
Mining Strategic Moves
South Africa’s Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources has formed a task team to consider measures supporting diamond producers facing pressure from laboratory-produced diamonds, SABC News reported. The group includes the Minerals Council and diamond producers. Minister Gwede Mantashe said global inflation and lab-grown competition are affecting producers across the sector, with small-scale miners hardest hit.
De Beers took full ownership of the Gahcho Kué diamond mine in Canada after Mountain Province Diamonds agreed to transfer its 49% stake as part of a comprehensive restructuring. The transaction releases Mountain Province from its mine-related debts and reclamation liabilities, while preserving an option to repurchase its interest before the end of 2029.
Kenzoll Capital and MSF Commercials plan to invest $50 million to restart Namibia’s Sperrgebiet Diamond Mine, formerly known as Elizabeth Bay, which holds 10.5 million carats of onshore and offshore diamond resources. Part of the investment will fund exploration for other minerals.
Petra Diamonds launched a strategic review to address its near-term liquidity needs, including a possible sale of its assets, which include the Cullinan and Finsch mines. The decision followed consultations with its first- and second-lien creditors, while José Manuel Vargas stepped down as chair and director and Lerato Molebatsi was appointed interim chair.
Petra Diamonds expects its shares to be suspended from trading from November 2 until its FY2026 audit is completed and its annual report published. Delays in the audit mean it will miss the October 31 publication deadline, and the company said its annual general meeting may also be postponed.
Rough Recovery
Namdeb recovered a 176.29-carat natural diamond, named Owishi, at its Southern Coastal Mine in Oranjemund, Namibia. President Netumbo Nandi Ndaitwah said the discovery, the mine’s largest in two decades, reinforces Namibia’s position as a producer of high-quality gem diamonds and called for greater domestic beneficiation and stronger marketing of the country’s diamond story.
Botswana Development Funded
De Beers has transferred its initial BWP 1 billion ($74 million) contribution to Botswana’s Diamonds for Development Fund, following the appointment of its chair and independent board. The fund will now finalize its strategy and business plan before rolling out programs to support economic diversification, job creation and new industries.
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