Holiday Expectations

Can you believe it’s crunch time again? Yep, the holiday season is officially here, with November having crept up on us and jewelers heading into the busiest stretch of the year. Remember, while the season “officially” starts over Thanksgiving weekend, retailers measure holiday sales from November 1 to December 24.

My feeling going into the season is that the industry has plenty to be optimistic about, as retail appears robust and consumer sentiment is improving. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index rose 7.5 points in October, after retail gas prices eased and perceptions of business conditions strengthened.

Of course, there are cautionary elements to consider. Inflation remains above the Fed’s target range, and geopolitics may yet affect spending as this week’s US midterm elections play out.

Overall, though, top-tier jewelers are doing well, and I think the industry will have a net positive season. Of course, the dynamic across the market has changed, and growth in retail sales doesn’t necessarily translate into a widespread improvement in diamond demand. The market remains segmented and picky, which means dealers and manufacturers need to be smart about inventory management.

Speaking of holidays, India celebrates Diwali this Sunday, November 8. Wishing all our members a happy Diwali! May the festival of lights bring you happiness and prosperity.

From an industry perspective, Diwali is gaining importance as India remains the most promising markets for diamond jewelry, even as gold remains its main growth driver. I’m keeping an eye on Titan Company and Kalyan Jewellers, which I recently started to follow.

Read the full November 2 edition of the Pressing Matters Executive Memo here.

Pic of the Week

JAR Dropping: A colored diamond appears to emerge from ice in this JAR diamond and chalcedony ring, a centerpiece of Karpidas’ collection. The ring is expected to fetch $2.5 million to $3.5 million at the Sotheby New York auction.