Is Geopolitics Rerouting the Diamond Trade?

The upturn in diamond trading through Antwerp does not signal a global market recovery, but a modest restoration of activity in the city.

That’s partly due to strategic structural measures implemented in 2025, as Karen Rentmeesters, CEO of the Antwerp World Diamond Centre (AWDC), stressed in a recent press release. But it’s also the result of geopolitical developments that have worked in Belgium’s favor.

The resurgence was evident in Belgium’s diamond trade data published by the AWDC, which highlighted two standout metrics.

Polished imports grew 21% year on year to $1.92 billion, driven by a sharp increase in inflows from other trading centers. Imports from Hong Kong rose 21%, India 17%, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) 68%, and Israel 40%.

The other notable metric was rough imports, with volume jumping 36% to 10.69 million carats, even as value fell 8% to $721.7 million, reflecting a 32% drop in the average price to $67 per carat.

Meanwhile, polished exports, arguably Belgium’s most telling data point as a measure of global demand, edged up 2% by value and 1% by volume, supported by a 15% rise in shipments to Hong Kong and a 7% increase to the US.

Belgium’s improvement stands in contrast to other centers. India, the largest diamond manufacturing hub, saw rough imports fall 23% to $2.14 billion, while polished exports declined 10% to $3.17 billion. Israel’s trade contracted by high double-digit percentages across the board. The United Arab Emirates, the largest trading center, does not disclose its statistics.

What, then, is driving the uptick in Belgium’s trade?

Structural Moves

Rentmeesters pointed to three factors. Structurally, she highlighted improved cooperation with the Flemish, Belgian and European authorities. That marks a notable shift, considering the restrictive tax and banking measures that have weighed on Belgium’s diamond trade in the past.

She also cited a more efficient visa policy, easing access for foreign traders, along with the recognition of diamond cutters and sorters as shortage occupations. These measures are designed to attract talent and capital back to Antwerp after years of gradual outflow.

Finally, she pointed to geopolitical tensions, particularly unrest in the Middle East, as companies seek more stable and flexible operating bases.

The war in Iran disrupted trade in Dubai and Israel, but activity in those centers will likely normalize once conditions stabilize. Notably, Belgium’s polished exports by volume to Dubai rose 46% in March.

Still, Antwerp’s data suggests geopolitics is influencing a shift in trading routes, even if only at the margins.

For context, the traditional diamond pipeline followed a well-established path. De Beers rough was historically distributed through its sights in London, transferred to Antwerp for trading and sorting, with some manufacturing done locally, before the bulk moved to India for cutting and polishing. The resulting polished was then distributed through centers such as New York, Hong Kong and Ramat Gan to retail markets.

That began to change in 2013 when De Beers moved its sights to Botswana. At the same time, the UAE positioned itself as an alternative trading hub with favorable tax policies, a shift that accelerated as the rough tender system gained traction and traditional trading channels weakened. The more common route for De Beers goods became Gaborone to Dubai to Surat.

Antwerp, meanwhile, maintained its trade with Alrosa and remained the primary destination for Russian rough, which had become a dominant source of global supply. That relationship came to an abrupt end following the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022, when G7 sanctions restricted Alrosa’s distribution.

In an attempt to retain relevance, Antwerp led efforts to introduce blockchain-based traceability, aiming to centralize verification of rough origin in the city. The initiative proved controversial and ultimately lost momentum, contributing to leadership changes at the AWDC, with Ari Epstein stepping down and Rentmeesters taking over as CEO.

Since then, Antwerp has adopted a more measured and strategic approach, particularly in its engagement with policymakers. That appears to be yielding results.

Trade Deals

The EU’s trade agreement with the US exempted diamonds from import duties to the largest market for diamonds. Other centers faced tariffs ranging from 10% to as high as 50% in India, before New Delhi negotiated a deal which effectively eliminated tariffs on gems and diamonds.

At the same time, the EU and India reached their own agreement, with the EU removing duties on Indian gem and jewelry imports, and India reducing its duty on polished diamonds from the EU to 2.5% from 5.5%.

These developments gave Antwerp a competitive edge which, if first-quarter data is any indication, has helped restore some market share to the city’s 580-year-old trade. Some business likely shifted from Dubai and Ramat Gan during the disruption in the Middle East, but that only explains part of the story.

What’s taking shape looks more structural. The diamond trade is still chasing efficiency, but the definition of efficiency is evolving, shaped as much by tariffs, policy and access as by logistics.

Antwerp has aligned itself accordingly, positioning diamonds within EU trade policy and lowering the cost of doing business for international players. It may not reclaim its historical dominance, but it does reinforce its relevance.

If geopolitics is rerouting the trade, it’s doing so through economics, and the industry across all locations will need to leverage its influence to secure and maintain favorable terms. Those that fail to do so risk paying the price.

Image: Antwerp's diamond district. (AWDC)