Thanksgiving Retail Signs

It’s Thanksgiving week, the first real marker of the holiday season, and the coming weekend still ranks among the busiest shopping periods of the year. It has lost some of its old chaos, mind you. A small part of me misses the midnight scrums, the elbows, the hair-pulling over that final discounted TV. Maybe we have matured into a more civilized society – one hopes so even if I still find myself watching those old Black Friday clips on YouTube.

The frenzy has eased, I think because Black Friday has stretched into a month of promotions rather than hinging on a single day. Still, the National Retail Federation (NRF) expects a record 186.9 million shoppers over Thanksgiving weekend, about 3 million more than last year. Clearly, people are trying to stretch their budgets in a highly promotional environment.

Whether that spills into jewelry comes down to how well retailers hold their price points while keeping customers engaged.

It’s a slightly odd season. Overall spending is projected to top $1 trillion in November and December, according to the NRF, yet households are tightening budgets at the same time. It brings me back to the value versus volume debate I keep talking about, as it suggests a shift to retailers selling a higher volume of lower valuer products.

My sense is that jewelry will push against that trend. I think we’ll see average price points rise and the number of transactions decline, as shoppers look for value for money, with more emphasis on quality and design, and a push to find something that genuinely feels special to them. That’s been the trend so far this year.

This blog first appeared in the November 17 Pressing Matters Executive Memo. Read the full memo here, Pressing Matters, featuring the following sections:

• Your Take: Survey

• What You Said: Poll Results

• In Focus: NDC Funds Close, Delay Costly

• Deep Dive: Alrosa's Pending Return

• Industry Voices

• The News That Matters

• Chart Check: Specials Lift Lucara to Scarce 3Q Profit

• Coming Up

Image: Black Friday jewelry sale. (Canva.com)