10 Predictions for the Diamond Industry in 2026

The diamond market enters 2026 in a state of flux after three punishing years from 2023 to 2025, with sustained pressure across mining, manufacturing, and retail.

It does not take a futurist to see that many of the forces behind the downturn remain firmly in place. The question now is how those dynamics evolve as the industry searches for greater stability.

To open the year, The Diamond Press sets out 10 developments and themes that are set to define the diamond trade in 2026.

1. Market contraction

The diamond industry is going to get smaller, driven largely by structural change at the retail level.

The US jewelry sector continues to shrink by roughly 3% a year, according to the Jewelers Board of Trade, as a growing number of independent retailers close when boomer jewelers retire without succession plans.

More consequential than store closures is the changing composition of what retailers sell. Synthetic diamonds continue to gain market share, while the sharp rise in gold prices has also forced jewelers to make trade-offs across their product mix, often at the expense of natural diamonds.

The combined effect is a sustained squeeze on demand that will intensify pressure on manufacturers and dealers and, in turn, on the mining sector, accelerating the exit of weaker participants from the industry.

2. Selective consumer spending

Consumers are once again prioritizing experiences over products after Covid-19 interrupted the previous cycle of experience-led spending. Travel, dining, and live events are being emphasized, particularly across social media platforms, fueling aspiration and imitation.

The trend transcends income brackets. Ultra-high-net-worth consumers continue to showcase their access, from destination dining and bespoke travel to courtside seats at marquee sporting events. At the same time, Gen-Z consumers are channeling their discretionary budgets toward adventure and experiences, becoming more selective in how, and where, they spend on luxury goods.

That shift has slowed the momentum of affordable luxury, which helped propel the broader luxury market in the immediate post-Covid period. In 2026, rising selectivity will intensify and increasingly shape purchasing behavior in the jewelry market.

3. Value over volume

The diamond industry has long been driven by volume, but the emphasis is shifting toward extracting greater value from fewer goods to reinforce the scarcity of diamonds. That transition will accelerate in 2026, led by retail jewelers confronting a strategic choice, whether to pursue higher volumes of lower-value synthetics or position themselves around higher-value natural diamonds.

Balancing both models will become increasingly difficult, particularly for independent jewelers, as each demands a different pricing and sales approach and a distinct value proposition.

4. Synthetics disruption

Retail prices for synthetic diamonds have not fallen in line with wholesale declines, leaving jewelers with unusually high margins on the product. At the same time, pricing remains highly inconsistent across retail channels, whether independent or branded jewelers, department stores, or online platforms, despite the standardized nature of synthetic diamond production and supply.

The synthetic diamond market will face disruption as consumers become more aware of these disparities, driving retail prices lower.

5. Lower production

The combined impact of shifting consumer preferences, retail dynamics, and weaker demand is reducing diamond supply requirements across the pipeline. Global diamond production fell to multi-decade lows of around 100 million carats in 2025 and is likely to remain near those levels in 2026 and beyond.

6. Power shifts in rough supply

De Beers’ influence over the rough market will continue to diminish as the company reduces its sightholder base and maintains lower production levels. At the same time, Botswana’s Okavango Diamond Company will increase supply to select clients as it leans further into contract sales, while Angola expands production and moves toward a more structured sales framework. Alrosa, meanwhile, will continue to sell large volumes of rough into the market.

Where the industry once took its cues from De Beers’ pricing and supply decisions at its 10 annual sights, that signaling power will be diluted in 2026 as alternative channels with comparable volumes exert growing influence over the rough market.

7. Marketing boost

The diamond industry has accepted that demand will not recover on its own and that renewed category marketing is required. Funding for the Natural Diamond Council is set to increase to support that effort, with at least part of the pledges made under the Luanda Accord expected to materialize. Even so, the NDC will remain structurally underfunded, falling short of the approximately $100 million it has identified as necessary to run its full marketing and education agenda.

8. Traceability shifts toward storytelling

Traceability in 2026 will be driven less by compliance and more by brand storytelling. With the G7 nations adopting self-declaration mechanisms on Russian diamonds, the regulatory pressure surrounding the sanctions discussion, that dominated the past two years, will fade into the background.

In its place, brands will lean on traceability to support marketing narratives around origin, ethics, and value, using provenance to differentiate natural diamonds rather than as a box-ticking exercise. In addition, competition among traceability service providers will intensify.

9. Botswana takes greater control

Anglo American will complete the sale of its 85% stake in De Beers, with the Government of Botswana increasing its holding from the current 15%, potentially to a majority position. Regardless of the transaction’s final structure, Botswana will step up its diamond marketing efforts, seeking greater control over how its diamonds are positioned and promoted in global markets.

10. Terminology tightens

The term “synthetics” will regain acceptance when referring to man-made diamonds. After becoming largely taboo following the US Federal Trade Commission’s guidance update in 2018, the natural diamond industry is now pushing to bring the terminology back into use, led by the French jewelry association UFBJOP.

In 2026, CIBJO, the World Jewellery Confederation, will move to reintroduce the term into its lexicon, even if initially on an informal basis, setting a reference point for other industry bodies to follow as the trade sharpens its effort to more clearly distinguish natural diamonds from synthetics.