A Shift in Sentiment: From Hong Kong to New York
We’ve got a busy week coming up in the diamond and jewelry industry. Mind you, there has been a lot going on in terms of events and product launches in the last month or so.
I’ve always loved how nomadic and cosmopolitan our industry is. Isn’t it fun how we’ve jumped from the India International Jewellery Show (IIJS) and VicenzaOro (Italy) in January to Inhorgenta Munich in February to the Hong Kong shows last week and now we head to New York… And with a fair bit of Botswana sprinkled in between.
Granted, I’m watching from the sidelines, glued to my laptop and gauging what’s going on through WhatsApp messages, Teams calls, social media posts, and the flurry of articles written. Still, one can feel the buzz and it all combines to give us a full-ish view of what’s happening out there.
Now, as the focus shifts to New York for the JA Show and the various events happening around it (see Coming Up section below), we have a chance to gain a bit more of an understanding of the important US market.
>>> Speaking of shows, mumbles out of Hong Kong were far more upbeat than expected.
See Rapaport’s coverage: Hong Kong Show Surprisingly Good, Diamond Dealers Say
My sources gave similar feedback, noting strong visitor traffic – show organizers counted 82,000 buyers from 141 countries across the two shows that took place. Buyers were fishing for price info, and there were reported shortages of select categories of polished diamonds.
Does that suggest that a significant rebound in Chinese demand is imminent? Probably not. I’d agree with De Beers executive Paul Rowley who suggested the market there will more likely stabilize toward the end of the year.
The better-than-expected sentiment was probably a reflection of pent-up dealer demand, and the low level of manufacturing and rough buying that we’ve witnessed in the first two months of the year, which resulted in reduced availability of popular categories of polished.
>>> We’ve noted the dire impact the drop in the rough market has had on mining companies, as indicated in earnings published over the past few weeks. Arguably, none has been more affected than Alrosa.
The Russian miner reported revenue fell 26% to $239.1 million in 2024, while profit slumped 77% to $19.3 million.
In addition to weak market conditions, the company is navigating sanctions restricting its diamond sales in the G7 nations. That leaves Dubai, India and Hong Kong as the primary destinations for Russian rough. It’s worth noting that Hong Kong’s rough imports grew 38% to $1.27 billion in 2024, with volumes up 113% to 14.01 million carats. That was due to a spike in rough imports from Russia, up 74% to $789 million.
Alrosa said it is taking adequate measures to support the sustainable development of its business and fulfill obligations in the current circumstances. A further deterioration may negatively affect the performance and financial position of the group, it added.
>>> Our comment on the retail market this week centers on Jewelers of America (JA). Look out for some important earnings from Brilliant Earth later this week (March 12) and from Signet Jewelers on March 19.
JA launched a three-year strategic plan that “will help propel the association forward.” The group also updated its mission statement, as follows:
“Jewelers of America, the most trusted and influential voice of the jewelry industry, empowers and unites its members through expert guidance and advocacy, driving excellence, integrity, and success in an ever-changing marketplace.”
For me the most important function of JA is its advocacy. It is the organization that represents and lobbies on behalf of the US jewelry industry to the US government. Perhaps the most important of matters on its current agenda are the sanctions on Russian goods and potential tariffs on jewelry-related imports from countries such as China and India.
The group didn’t reveal too much detail about its new program. No doubt more will be revealed with time. But the fact that it engaged in a strategic review at all is very encouraging. Too often trade organizations get stuck in their perceived mandate, with little assessment whether it’s relevant anymore. Others should do the same.
>>> Quick shoutout to my friends at Hill & Co., which recently launched ‘The List!’
Here’s the deal, as far as I understand it: If the three golden rules of real estate are location-location-location, those of the diamond, gem and jewelry trade are connections-connections-connections. Without the right relationships, you can’t find the right buyers, and The List gives one access to the enormous scope of the Hill & Co community.
Founder & CEO Elle Hill and principal consultant Andrea Lucille Pooler are hosting a free, one-hour workshop on “how to find your ideal clients” on Wednesday, which I highly recommend. Register Here for ‘The List Workshop.’ I’ll see you there.
Hot Off The Diamond Press
This week in the diamond world (news roundup)
What I’m watching – Inhorgenta: Industry Insights
Coming Up
(Note all the New York events...)
Brilliant Earth FY results: March 12
Gem Diamonds FY results: March 13
Jewelers of America Gem Awards (New York): March 14
Jewelers Vigilance Committee (JVC) luncheon (New York): March 14
24K Club Dinner (New York): March 15
JA New York show: March 16 to 18
International Diamond Manufacturers Association (IDMA) President’s meeting (New York): March 16 to 17
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