Countdown to August 1

Avi Krawitz
Jul 15
4 min read

Believe it or not, I only just got back from Las Vegas.

What started as a quick two-week trip turned into a six-week global tour thanks to a mix of geopolitical events and personal curveballs. That took me to Las Vegas, New York, Washington DC, a brief London layover, Johannesburg, and finally home to Tel Aviv.

Personal frustrations aside, let’s focus on geopolitics for a second, which no doubt is impacting sentiment in the diamond market.

Right now, the industry is being shaped by two major issues in this sphere: Russian sanctions and new tariffs.

Sanctions have taken something of a backseat for the moment. Each G7 country has their own mechanism in place, while some are still pursuing mandated traceability, with the European Union targeting January 1, 2026, as its deadline.

Tariffs, on the other hand, are front and center. The initial 90-day grace period on reciprocal tariffs expired last week. Most countries have received extensions through August 1 as negotiations continue. Until then, a default 10% rate is in place for most trading partners.

The industry’s ideal outcome would be a full exemption from tariffs — similar to what’s already in place for minerals like copper, zinc, steel, and aluminum, among others. The World Diamond Council has been actively lobbying Washington toward that goal.

Still, progress ultimately hinges on government-to-government negotiations. As of August 1, these are the tariff rates facing major diamond-producing and trading countries:

India – 26%, expected to fall below 20%
Botswana – 37%
Namibia – 21%
Angola – 32%
South Africa – 30%
Belgium (EU) – 30%
Israel – 17%
UAE – 10%

These break down into two broad groups: producer countries and trading centers. If those differences in rates hold, they will reshape the economics of the diamond trade, making some supply routes significantly more expensive than others. The market will naturally shift to favor those centers subject to lower tariffs.

This is especially critical for producer countries, many of which rely heavily on diamond exports to the US. It’s safe to assume their governments are pushing hard in Washington to secure better terms.

Looking ahead, the market may see another surge of goods entering the US in advance of the August 1 deadline.

There’s also the broader concern that higher tariffs could feed into rising costs for American consumers — potentially dampening demand for discretionary items like jewelry. So far, that hasn’t been the case.

Still, with the deadline fast approaching, the pressure is very much on.

Rough Exploration

Mountain Province reported a 36% year-on-year drop in second-quarter sales, falling to $26.6 million. Sales volume declined 26%, while the average price slipped 12% to $65 per carat.

Although its revenue base is modest, the company benefits from a significant partnership with De Beers through its 49% stake in the Gahcho Kué mine.

That makes recent comments by De Beers CEO Al Cook all the more notable. He suggested that diamond mining in Canada could end by 2030–31, when production at Gahcho Kué is scheduled to wrap up. De Beers has already shelved plans for underground development at the site, as well as nearby exploration activity.

These decisions raise broader questions about the economic viability of mining operations with such low average prices in today’s market.

For Mountain Province, the implications are significant. With Gahcho Kué nearing the end of its life, the company’s future may hinge on its fully owned Kennady North exploration project. That project holds three known kimberlites, but with a relatively modest inferred resource and similar value profile to Gahcho Kué.

To make Kennady North viable — or to secure a partner for any potential extension at Gahcho Kué — the company will be counting on a meaningful recovery in diamond prices over the next five years.

Chart Check

India’s diamond trade continued its decline in the second quarter of 2025, reflecting the broader global market slowdown. Rough imports dropped 5% year-on-year to $3.22 billion, while polished exports fell 20% to $2.84 billion during the April-to-June period.

The data highlights the cyclical nature of diamond trading, with the first half of the year typically seeing stronger activity — often driven by inventory replenishment in the first quarter after the holiday season.

But the broader pattern has been disrupted. For the past three years, each quarter has been slower than the one before. That marks a shift from earlier patterns, when third-quarter polished exports sometimes outpaced the second quarter, and rough imports picked up in the fourth.

Those earlier trends were signs of a healthier market, driven by US retailers stocking up for the holidays and manufacturers ramping up production ahead of the first quarter spike in polished demand (see 2021 in the chart above).

Whether that pattern returns in 2025 remains to be seen.

Coming Up

We’re heading into earnings season, with a busy two weeks of updates from across the mining, luxury, and retail sectors. These reports should offer a clearer read on market sentiment and performance at the halfway point of 2025.

Here's what to look out for: