The Time’s They Are A-Changing
My head is spinning there have been so many fantastically newsworthy developments in the diamond industry this week. ‘All I Really Want To Do’ is share it with you!
And, in the spirit of last night’s Oscars, one can’t help but feel that ‘The Time’s They Are A-Changing.’ Do I need to explain the reference?... A Complete Unknown, Bob Dylan, Timotheé Chalarmet, The Academy Awards?… Oh, forget it.
Conveniently for my structured brain, the three major stories that stood out touch on the rough, polished, and jewelry segments respectively:
>>> In rough, we saw De Beers and the Botswana government sign their much-anticipated mining and marketing agreements. Yip, ‘It’s All Over Now, Baby Blue’… At least, that saga around the negotiations is. More accurately, this should be a new beginning, as the deals provide a framework for the next phase of Botswana’s diamond development, and arguably that of De Beers.
Check out my video explaining the agreements: What’s the Deal with De Beers and Botswana?
One thing worth emphasizing is the beneficiation element of the marketing agreement. De Beers and the state-owned Okavango Diamond Company (ODC) have committed to supply diamonds for manufacturing in Botswana, in line with their respective shares of Debswana production.
That has ramifications for the flow of rough and polished trading across the globe. It impacts manufacturing levels in India, as well as the route diamonds take to market. For example, some Indian companies use Dubai as a distribution hub for their beneficiated polished. They can’t ship them to India where polished diamonds are subject to a 5% import duty. As more goods are manufactured in Gaborone, more is sent to Dubai. That’s one example of the deeper implications these agreements might have on he market that I’m keeping an eye on.
>>> The focus of the polished market has swung to the Hong Kong shows, which opened on Sunday. Full disclosure, I’m not there. Simply put, my schedule screamed, ‘You Ain’t Goin’ Nowhere,’ Avi! And that’s a pity, because there seems to be a little more interest in the show than in recent years. That may boil down to pure curiosity about the state of the Chinese market, which, along with lab-grown diamonds, remains the biggest challenge facing the diamond trade.
There isn’t great hope for a meaningful recovery in Chinese diamond demand this year, and certainly not from the show. De Beers executives have said they anticipate the market there to stabilize toward the end of 2025. This week’s events may well give us some insight into whether that is realistic or not.
>>> Our retail representative came in the unlikely form of Select Equity Group. Who? You ask? Well, Select Equity is the largest shareholder in Signet Jewelers. It sent a bombshell letter to the Signet board on Thursday highlighting the company’s lack of growth and rash decision making in recent years. It urged the board to consider its strategic options, including putting the company up for sale.
See my full analysis of this story here: Signet for Sale? A Strategic Change is Needed
I don’t dismiss that a sale is a real possibility. Now that the seed has been planted, such acquisitions tend to gather steam quite quickly, especially when they involve institutional investors, as most of Signet’s largest shareholders are. For them, ‘Tomorrow Is A Long Time,’ and they could well put additional pressure on the board if the Signet stock doesn’t recover quickly.
This could well be the unexpected big story of the year.
>>> Finally, speaking of the Oscars, check out The Natural Diamond Council’s account of the jewels that dazzled the red-carpet last night: The Best Jewelry of the 2025 Oscars – Gulp! It truly is like ‘Watching the River Flow.’
Okay, you may have spotted the random, odd, arguably forced, somewhat kitsch, Dylan references in this week’s memo. If you appreciated them, well, you’re my kind of people! If it annoyed you, which I can appreciate, I make no apologies – just, ‘Don’t Think Twice, It’s All Right.’
Hot off The Diamond Press
This week in the diamond world (news roundup).
What I’m watching
I finally got to viewing the Portraits seminar from the January VicenzaOro show. And it was well worth the wait, as the program gave such valuable insight into the trends and creativity shaping the jewelry market.
It's this week's recommended feature, which can be viewed here: Portraits: The Anthropology of Body Adornments
Coming up
Hong Kong International Diamond, Gem & Pearl Show: March 2 to 6
Hong Kong International Jewellery Show: March 4 to 8
Brilliant Earth 4Q & FY results: March 12
Gem Diamonds FY results: March 13
Signet Jewelers 4Q & FY results: March 19
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